Tourism Towards 2030, UNWTO’s recently released long-term forecast, shows that international tourism will continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace than the past decades, with the number of tourist arrivals worldwide increasing by an average 3.3 per cent per year. This will see global tourist arrivals pass one billion next year and reach 1.8 billion by 2030.
The next 20 years will be of continued growth for the sector – a more moderate, responsible and inclusive growth. This offers immense possibilities as these can also be years of leadership, with tourism leading economic growth, social progress and environmental sustainability. It is more important than ever that all by the principles of sustainable development.
By 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, and by 2030 their share is expected to reach 58 per cent. There will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific to 30 per cent in 2030, up from 22 per cent in 2010. Intra-Asia travel will make up half of this, but the real growth comes from outside the region.
By 2030, Northeast Asia will be the most visited sub-region in the world, representing 16 per cent of total arrivals and taking over from Southern and Mediterranean Europe, with a 15 per cent share in 2030.
A lot must be done between now and then. Infrastructure will increase in line with natural market demand, but there must be greater sensitivity to the environment when it comes to such development. The real strain will be on human resources, where market demand is far greater than the available workforce. Public and private organisations need to come together and address this as a regional issue.
China is currently the third-highest source of tourists, but will become number one by 2020. Destinations will have to prepare to meet their specific requirements. This is beginning to happen, not proportionally to the rate of growth, but the market will adjust itself.
Taleb Rifai is secretary-general of the UN World Tourism Organisation omt@unwto.org